200MW燃煤机组SCR脱硝改造关键技术问题解析

目前,国内200 MW机组SCR脱硝改造尚无样板工程及改造先例。200 MW机组由于其独特地设计,同300 MW以上等级机组相比,脱硝改造的技术方式与改造内容均有较大的差异。文章从国内200 MW机组脱硝改造实际情况出发,从设计参数选取、还原剂选择、SCR反应器布置方式、低氮燃烧器改造、空预器改造及引风机改造、厂用变压器系统改造等关键问题进行了技术分析并提出可行建议,为同等级机组脱硝改造工作提供方法与经验。     

The importance of spatial autocorrelation,extent and resolution in predicting forest bird occurrence

Concerns about declines in forest biodiversity underscore the need for accurate estimates of the distribution and abundance of organisms at large scales and at resolutions that are fine enough to be appropriate for management. This paper addresses three major objectives: (i) to determine whether the resolution of typical air photo-derived forest inventory is sufficient for the accurate prediction of site occupancy by forest birds. We compared prediction success of habitat models using air photo variables to models with variables derived from finer resolution, ground-sampled vegetation plots. (ii) To test whether incorporating spatial autocorrelation into habitat models via autologistic regression increases prediction success. (iii) To determine whether landscape structure is an important factor in predicting bird distribution in forest-dominated landscapes. Models were tested locally (Greater Fundy Ecosystem [GFE]) using cross-validation, and regionally using an independent data set from an area located ca. 250 km to the northwest (Riley Brook [RB]). We found significant positive spatial autocorrelation in the residuals of at least one habitat model for 76% (16/21) of species examined. In these cases, the logistic regression assumption of spatially independent errors was violated. Logistic models that ignored spatial autocorrelation tended to overestimate habitat effects. Though overall prediction success was higher for autologistic models than logistic models in the GFE, the difference was only significantly improved for one species. Further, the inclusion of spatial covariates did little to improve model performance in the geographically discrete study area. For 62% (13/21) of species examined, landscape variables were significant predictors of forest bird occurrence even after statistically controlling for stand-level variability. However, broad spatial extents explained less variation than local factors. In the GFE, 76% (16/21) of air photo and 81% (17/21) of ground plot models were accurate enough to be of practical utility (AUC > 0.7). When applied to RB, both model types performed effectively for 55% (11/20) of the species examined. We did not detect an overall difference in prediction success between air photo and ground plot models in either study area. We conclude that air photo data are as effective as fine resolution vegetation data for predicting site occupancy for the majority of species in this study. These models will be of use to forest managers who are interested in mapping species distributions under various timber harvest scenarios, and to protected areas planners attempting to optimize reserve function.     

An improved method of direct chromosome preparation from chorionic villus and high resolution banding technique

The trophoblast was dissociated from the underlying mesenchymal layer either with acetic acid after short-term prefixation or with mechanical power after fixation twice. The colcemid treatment time was shorted to 16 min and trypsin solution of low pH (6.2) was used for banding. By these steps, the quality of chromosome banding was greatly improved and complete standard chromosome diagnoses were made in 24 of 24 cases. With the modified technique, high resolution banding chromosomes were consistently obtained after short-term incubation.     

现有环境质量评价方法可能存在的虚假性

在现行的环境质量评价方法中，由于同一区域内的各评价因子采用不同的评价方法或利用不同的数学模型进行评价，导致评价结论有差异甚至有显著差异，亦即评价结论可能存在虚假性。     

Building consensus on divisive issues: a case study of the Yukon wolf management team

This article presents a case study of a successful effort to reach agreement on one of the most intractable environmental issues of our time: wolf management. This case is unusual in several ways. In this case, the members of the negotiating team were ordinary citizens rather than leaders of organized groups. This team was given an unusually high level of authority to write the plan as they saw fit; the agency pledged to implement “whatever they came up with.” The agency convened the process, but agency personnel were not members of the team and attended only when they were invited. The team members were able to reach agreement on this tough issue even though polar opposites were at the table—one who felt that wolves are a “spiritual essence” and another who felt that, as he put it, “wolves, coyotes, and cockroaches have a lot in common”. They produced a detailed plan that addressed all the issues in just 5 months. Another unusual aspect of this effort is that the final agreement does not list the team members. They explained that they wanted their plan to “stand alone” and be judged based on what it said, not on who was involved.However, just after their agreement was completed, a new, pro-wolf control government was elected that refused to endorse the plan. While the government gave various reasons for not ratifying the plan, more and more diverse interest groups came out in support for both the plan and the process that created it. Eventually, overwhelming public support forced the government to sign and implement the plan as written. This demonstrates that, while it is important for a team to seek the sanction of decision-makers, it is perhaps even more important for the general public to see the effort and the final agreement as fair. Strong support from a broad spectrum of the public can help win the necessary political support.In addition to discussing the unorthodox aspects of this consensus-building effort, this article also attempts to give the reader a front row seat to this process by using the informants' own words—words rich in detail, brimming with color and spoken straight from the heart. Certainly their experience dispels any notion that such efforts are simply a matter of following a recipe. During the process, members of the negotiating team experienced the entire gamut of emotions—anger, defeat, humor and, finally, a genuine sense of pride. As team member Patty Denison put it, “We showed that a random group of people could work together and do something truly monumental.”     

大气环流模式CAM4对亚洲气候的高分辨率模拟

中小尺度地形不仅在区域尺度上影响降水和环流形势分布,还会影响季风、西风急流等大尺度的天气系统。新的全球模式分辨率得到明显提高,本研究通过对比分析CAM4高分辨率配置下的模拟结果与高分辨率APHRO降水和ERA-Interim再分析资料,评估高分辨率CAM4对亚洲地区气候系统的模拟性能。结果表明,该模式不仅对亚洲季风-干旱气候系统的大尺度分布特征有良好的模拟能力,还能很好地模拟出季风区和内陆干旱半干旱区年均和季节平均降水的高、低值中心以及水平风场、地表温度和海平面气压的区域差异性特征,尤其是山脉地形附近的降水极值和风场变化。此外,CAM4与气象资料间在不同空间尺度上的空间相关性均很好,其中地表温度的相关系数在0.9以上,降水在亚洲地区超过0.7。     

基于TOPAZ的无人机冲突解脱安全评估技术

针对当前无人机空域运行安全评估体系缺乏的现状,利用TOPAZ构建了一种用于无人机飞行冲突解脱技术的安全评估体系。构造了无人机的空域运行环境,加入单机45°交叉相遇、90°交叉相遇和双机同时交叉相遇的冲突场景。选取一种典型的无人机冲突解脱算法作为安全评估对象,依据TOPAZ的评估流程展开了系统的评估,得出冲突解脱算法的安全水平。对冲突解脱算法提出了改进方案,加入了动态的启发式因子,有效提高了冲突解脱技术的安全性能。通过基于TOPAZ的迭代评估过程进一步找出了无人机冲突解脱算法的安全瓶颈所在,证实了当前各类冲突解脱技术还无法满足有人机与无人机共域飞行的安全需要。     

现代受体模式评述

传统的数学受体模式可概括地分为两大类,即化学质量平衡法(CMB)和多元技术(MVT),CMB由于要求已知所求源的成分谱。从而在应用中受到限制。MVT以因子模式为中心,由于因子模式的本征向量解法求解不唯一或称误差太大,使得MVT给人一种人造数据的印象。近年来,元素示踪体系将受体模式的应用范围从城市尺度扩展到区域尺度,由于该体系经验性太强,未能得到广泛的应用。本文针对现代受体模式中存在的一些关键性问题作了系统的评述。      

中国地区MODIS气溶胶光学厚度产品综合验证及分析

讨论了2000年02月~2019年08月不同分辨率、算法中等分辨率成像光谱仪（MODIS）气溶胶光学厚度（AOD）产品在不同季节、区域、下垫面条件下中国区域的精度和适用性,在像元尺度上对比了重采样降低分辨率后的多角度大气校正（MAIAC）AOD数据与其他产品的精度.研究表明：在同等验证条件下,相较于暗目标算法（DT）、深蓝算法（DB）和暗目标与深蓝结合算法（DTB）,1km MAIAC AOD产品在中国地区与AERONET站点AOD观测数据整体一致性最高,R²达到0.891,均方根误差（RMSE）仅为0.126,超过75%的验证样本落在期望误差线（EE）范围内;同时,该产品受季节、区域和下垫面变化影响也最小,其中秋季R²达到0.917,RMSE为0.111,样本落在EE内的比例达到80.11%.3km DT算法AOD产品在植被覆盖率较大的森林和农田区域优于1km MAIAC AOD产品,在植被覆盖率较小的草地和城市区域则差于1km MAIAC AOD产品,且该产品在不同季节均存在AOD高估问题,其中,夏季高估程度最高（平均相对误差（RMB）=1.622,AOD值高估62.2%）.DB在长三角和珠三角地区存在AOD被低估的现象.DTB算法兼顾了DT算法和DB算法的优缺点,DTB算法AOD产品的相关性一般高于DB算法AOD产品,样本被高估程度一般低于DT算法AOD产品.通过重采样方法降低1km MAIAC AOD产品分辨率后,相同尺度下的MAIAC AOD数据精度优于DT算法、DB算法和DTB算法AOD产品,因此,MAIAC算法更适用于小尺度城市群集中区域的大气环境监测.